A FAFO list - add your own

Iran had a massive protest movement against the theocratic government early this year, and that might just have resulted in democratic reforms. Maybe.

But now, with Trump bombing the country, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the country unites around a common cause. Trump may well have set back the protest movement in Iran by a decade or more.

I think there’s significant chance that Trump will use nuclear weapons on Iran. Probably tactical nukes, but I wouldn’t put it past him to use a strategic nuke. If he uses one, what’s to stop Russia from using one on Kyiv or China using one on Taipei with the excuse “well, he used one first”?

I’m sure the editors of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists are moving the doomsday clock much closer to midnight.

Unlikely now he has Taco Trumped again and begged for a ceasefire…and got it on Iran’s terms.

I dont think the military would target Iran or anywhere else with nukes if ordered by the Orange Mussolini. Even they will find some iron in their underwear.

Okay, he didn’t try to use one this time, but he’s notorious for changing his mind. I would hope the military would refuse an order to use a nuke, but he’s been purging the military of non-sycophants.

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Trump craves attention. His only strategy is “look at me”. His age and cognitive decline points to a deteriorating narcissistic stability. This is not a megalomaniac attempting to destroy the world, this is a highly damaged and flawed man grasping at anything that brings him attention, or narcissistic supply.

His solipsistic nature is not concerned if the attention is praise or criticism, as long as they spell his name right he wins in his mind.

Does this mean he can’t fuck things up? No. He excels at fucking things up.

It does indicate that he lacks any coherent grasp on reality. It does indicate that his life long strategy of bluff, bluster and back down his the worst kept secret in the world.

My suspicions are that republicans are gaming a strategy where they can medically remove Trump from office before he turns the Republican Party into the Whig Party. This allows him to leave as the leader who left it all on the field and passes the fight off to a new generation of warriors to continue his legacy. All bullshit, but it’s the best way out of the von Papen deal republicans made 10 years ago…

MAGA buys new T-shirts and hats, Republicans have 2 years to rebuild before 2028 and world business and finance all breath a collective sigh of relief.

It is shaping up to be a very long 9 months until January 2027…

We were on the brink of a nuclear war yesterday. What did most of the republicans in congress do about it? They. Were. Completely. Silent. Thats how far they will go to protect him.

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We were on the brink of Trump looking for an exit ramp yesterday. Nuclear exchanges are notoriously bad for business. The actual people who put Trump in office would never have allowed that.

I believe Republicans are finally recalling how things went for von Papen and are actively looking for a way to medically remove Trump. Why else would Witkoff and Kushner be sidelined in favor of Vance heading the negotiating team in Islamabad?

As far as republicans largely standing mute…one of my favorite Americans, Ambrose Bierce, put it best:

POLITICIAN, n. An eel in the fundamental mud upon which the superstructure of organized society is reared. When he wriggles he mistakes the agitation of his tail for the trembling of the edifice. As compared with the statesman, he suffers the disadvantage of being alive.

They are paralyzed by their complicity over the past 10 years. They weren’t sure what they were doing in 2016 when they hitched their wagon to Trump…and now they have no clue how to get the wagon back on the road.

The Democrats are no prize either. I would bet the farm that if Democrats had worked with Republicans to remove Trump on MEDICAL grounds, versus COGNITIVE grounds, his orange ass would have been gone. Democrats would rather keep him in office to play up their mad king narrative going into the mid terms.

About the only positive for Congress is that they are currently more popular than gonorrhea.

I just don’t believe that. I think too many of them would remain, as they have demonstrated so far, supportive of his decisions.

I don’t completely disagree. And yet, I do not believe we would be in this mess if Harris were president right now.

(BTW, I’ve used the word believe twice above. Purposefully. I’ve a lack of data so my conclusions require it.)

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Fuck HIPAA, eh?

This is in response to CNN calling trump’s ceasefire deal a crushing defeat:

I wasn’t referring to the 77 million voters who put him there. I was referring to this gaggle:

Individual / Entity Estimated Contribution Primary Benefit / Role
Elon Musk $130M+ (2024 cycle) Appointed Co-Head of DOGE; influence over federal regulation and spending.
Miriam & Sheldon Adelson $120M+ (2020) Presidential Medal of Freedom; influence on Middle East policy (U.S. Embassy move).
Richard & Liz Uihlein $79M+ (Cumulative) $79M tax saving in 2018 alone via Section 199A pass-through deduction.
Diane Hendricks $15M+ (2024) Massive tax savings via 2017 Tax Cuts; influential advisor on manufacturing.
Linda McMahon $15M+ Appointed SBA Administrator (1st term) and Secretary of Education (2nd term).
Kelly Loeffler $11M+ Appointed SBA Administrator; husband’s firm (ICE/NYSE) saw major deregulation.
Warren Stephens $6M Nominated as Ambassador to the United Kingdom.
Howard Lutnick Multi-million (Fundraising) Appointed Secretary of Commerce; Co-Chair of the Transition Team.
Crypto Industry $58M+ (Collective) SEC dropped lawsuits against Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple.
Lockheed Martin $10M (to WH projects) Secured $33.4B in federal contracts for 2025.

…as well as the rest of the 1% who own this country.

In as far as the the Harris\Walz ticket being an improvement…I believe the only certainty there would have been their predictability. I voted for them, not so much for their ideology, but for the fact that I believed they wouldn’t fuck things up as bad as Trump.

Dr. Mengele want’s to know…

It is only a defeat if you believe that peace was the goal. I’m convinced it was done to move the market in a known direction for a short period of time (insider trading), which is exactly what happened.

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The very essence of Trump.

In 2020, Alaskan voters did something logical and progressive: implementing ranked choice voting and tougher campaign finance laws. So, of course, Trump is against it.

https://alaskabeacon.com/briefs/president-donald-trump-calls-for-repeal-of-ranked-choice-voting-in-alaska/

This tweet contains an essay I found worth reading. You may as well.

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Orban conceded. 2/3 vote for opposition candidate.

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One FAFO expert down, three to go.

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Yeah, welcome to 21st century white entitled America lamenting a failed mythology.

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My money is on Putin outliving them all.