Recently i was thinking about how the Coronavirus is impacting the election 2020 in the USA and was looking at all the polls.
Then I got the idea to make my own poll based on how states are reacting on the corona virus.
It goes like this, if Corona cases are steady the voters take the virus serious and they dont listen to much to Trump and so are likely Biden voters.
If the cases rises they dont take it serious enough and do listen to Trump and so are likely Trump voters. I know it is not very concrete reasoning but we will see if im right.
I looked up the virus cases per state and checked if there was a surge in the latest weeks.
Then I filled in the states accordingly like this:
So I predict a modest electoral win for Biden.
I also predict a surprising win in Texas for Biden, I know the other polls also seems to indicate a swing to the democrats in Texas although they are more carefull and put them as likely republican. I have Texas for Biden, based on a very steady amount of corona cases. Maybe I will update the map during the election because of changes in the corona virus cases. Im very curious on 3 november if my prediction holds up.