Recently i was thinking about how the Coronavirus is impacting the election 2020 in the USA and was looking at all the polls.
Then I got the idea to make my own poll based on how states are reacting on the corona virus.
It goes like this, if Corona cases are steady the voters take the virus serious and they dont listen to much to Trump and so are likely Biden voters.
If the cases rises they dont take it serious enough and do listen to Trump and so are likely Trump voters. I know it is not very concrete reasoning but we will see if im right.
I looked up the virus cases per state and checked if there was a surge in the latest weeks.
Then I filled in the states accordingly like this:
So I predict a modest electoral win for Biden.
I also predict a surprising win in Texas for Biden, I know the other polls also seems to indicate a swing to the democrats in Texas although they are more carefull and put them as likely republican. I have Texas for Biden, based on a very steady amount of corona cases. Maybe I will update the map during the election because of changes in the corona virus cases. Im very curious on 3 november if my prediction holds up.
How they are reacting in what time frame? The last full week of covid data?
Only 9 states have flat or reduced covid cases in the last 2 weeks. Based on this data, tRump would win in a landslide greater than Reagan’s massive landslide victory (greatest landslide victory in modern US elections.)
What about states like ND right now, that are seeing up to 5% of their entire populations getting infected right now in these last few weeks, with little to no effort being done to stem this widespread community spread? (We could see 10+% of the population sick in N.Dakota by the time Nov 3rd rolls around at current rates of infection there. 10% of the population that may be too sick to get out and vote, all the while this heavily republican leaning state realizes that tRump had it all wrong downplaying the covid threat?
I doubt N.D. will flip to blue because of covid, it has been a deep red state for a while now. But if 10% of the population sick from something tRump said was a democrat scam to get him out of the white house… then how can we expect states with just 1-2% of their population sick, (but greatly rising cases) suddenly flip from blue to red because of it?
I could see this concept of yours playing a role in tight battle ground states, but I would be extremely surprised to see a map a bit like what yours is showing. (Actually your map would be almost entirely solidly red, with just a bit of blue for California and far north east.
I actually think the greatest single reason Biden will win, is how many people that are going to turn up to vote to ensure they do not have another 4 years of tRump. All the apathetic democrat voters that did not think tRump would win, or did not care, a lot of those people now realize how important it is to actually vote this time. And we are seeing signs of this with massive democrat turnout so far.
I doenst have to be complete flat or reduced, not a big surge is enough stable for me.
I dont understand what you are trying to say you doubt ND will flip blue? That is what I said it will stay red! Why? because the corona cases are still rising meaning the population doesnt take the coronavirus serious. Will that opinion change in two weeks? I dont think so, the pandamic is going on from March, the last two weeks dont matter in changing that, unless it becomes draconic like hospitals overcrowded and field hospitals being set up and dead bodies piling up in containers outside. But that is not going to happen within two weeks. Lets hope it never happens though.
I hope so, I realy do. I also hope they can flip some senate seats as well, that would be the most important game changer. Another 4 years of a democratic president with a republican majority in the senate is not something to look out for.
I was trying to illustrate how unlikely it is for the opposite effect if the conditions were reversed. A solidly red state historically, going blue in this election, predicted by increased or decreased covid infection rates at this time. You have Texas and Arizona and Louisiana all going blue, when for at least the last 17 years in a row, these states have voted red. Usually by wide margins.
Yeah, already happened way too many times for the worlds richest country in the world, that also spends far more on health then any other country.
You have a very good reasons to hope for that outcome. There is a lot more vulnerable republican senate seats up for grabs then democrat ones, a simple game of math there, and localized elections are in many ways a lot simpler then a national one, they are always by popular vote as well, making polls that much more accurate.
Yeah, it would be 2 years. And 2 years from now, I believe democrats will be defending more senate seats. Something to worry about.
I do think there is high likelihood that if their is a Biden victory, that senate control will slide over to democrats as well, would only need a net gain of 3 seats.
Another interesting development I read is: if the POTUS election is hotly contested, and it is to close to call, there is a path where Pelosi is supposed to take charge, as Trump/Pence are supposed to recuse themselves from the process if their is a debate on the legitimacy of presidential process. Don’t know how realistic that is, but that one would make the republicans howl
That is right, but looking at the other polls Biden is leading in Arizona, Texas is close and yes Lousiana is more for Trump, could it be they are underreporting the corona cases?
I mean just yesterday a whopping 300.000 excess deaths in the us where reported from januari till now as related to corona virus!
Yeah, horrifying numbers, worse then I feared they would be at this point.
300,000 preventable deaths.
All we had to do was to stop all movement for 2 weeks, early on, could of even given a week for everyone to prepare to shelter in place.
But no! Starting with the president and on down most all of the republican party, all just magically believed it would not be bad, and rather not make that simple sacrifice, even though all the experts in the field were screaming it is real bad, 300,000 preventable deaths, and if we have a nasty winter, which so far seems increasingly likely, a million? More by the time this is all done?
The US has suffered its worst week for new infections of the entire Covid-19 pandemic just days before the election, underscoring what some epidemiologists described as “life and death” stakes as Americans head to the polls.
Yea, whatever the outcome of the election, even if Biden is elected it still takes 3 months till Januari for him to take some real action. I dont think Trump will do anything else then wait for a vacine, In the mean time the virus has free game. By the way, my poll prediction didnt change much so I keep it as it is.
And not to be outdone, the day after the election usa breaks 100k new cases and we have only begun the “steep part” of new covid cases.
GO USA! WE ARE NUMBER ONE!!! /sarcasm
Because leadership does not want to make unpopular decisions, it is left to the people to decide for themselves if they want to take it serious.
At this point, far to many people will not take it serious until someone close to them ends up in the hospital or worse. Which to me means cases will just keep going up until the pain is to great. And unfortunately that probably means emergency triage rules for many hospitals in hard hit areas, which will increase the death rate of this virus, as well as possibly paralyze/collapse the front line medical.
I always make a point of watching John Oliver, even if he has been a bit (rightfully so) dark the last few months.
For lack of a better place to put it, (I do not want to start a new topic:)
My take as a US resident on the state of the country:
I am calling it: Biden has won the presidency. I also know that tRump and many republicans have no option but to contest the results. There likely will be some violence by people that always believe tRump and refuse to accept reality. Senate will likely remain (very narrowly,) in republican control, for at least 2 more years.
Covid is going to continue to get worse in the US. Many still believe it is a hoax or will not affect them. And will continue to do so until someone close to them ends up in the hospital. Some areas will have to go to emergency triage rules, with partial collapses of front line medical, mostly in rural areas.
Things will start getting better in February, for the US with the major holidays over, and the transfer of power complete. I would not be surprised if US has 500k deaths from covid by that point. And total “excess deaths” hits 700k.
The US economy will not collapse, but it will be harmed. Per usual it will be the most vulnerable that take the brunt of the economic impact as well as the sickness/death from covid. However chances of economic collapse will be elevated until February.
It’s my understanding that unlike Australia, people elected to the US congress and the Senate are not obliged to vote on party lines. Therefore, with a narrow Senate majority, doesn’t that mean a new Democrat government should be able to get more legislation passed by the senate?
In terms of who has won, looks like clear Biden Win. However, last time I looked, Biden still had only 264 electoral votes. So I’ll wait. I think Biden will have more than 270 votes eventually.
In the realms of possible but not likely: It’s my understanding that technically, members of the electoral college are independent and can vote for any candidate they choose… I understand this has happened in the past, but that it’s rare.----I reckon a whole bunch of them might vote for Biden even though their state was won by Republicans. I’m actually a little surprised Trump hasn’t tried to suborn the electoral college.
I truly hope you’re right. Should such a collapse occur, there would be a world depression. China is the US’ biggest creditor, owning a $trillion of us debt. If the US defaulted on its debts, does that mean China would then own the US? I think that’s actually China’s cunning plan.
I hereby would like to congratulate Joe Biden en Kamala Harris winning the 2020 election!
And altough Joe is a practicing Catholic, I admire his personality, character, unifying language and outstanding political performance. Im so happy that Trump will be gone soon, and while Im not even an US citizen I can tell you right now I’m drinking champagne behind my labtop. I bought the bottle already in advance for newyears eve, but found the ocation fitting enough to pop the cork.
By the way anyone watched the Paula White clip? What was that all about? Summoning angels to help trump and intervene in the election process? Doesnt she realize that she asked her God to perform election fraud? At least It was very entertaining to see some true white witch craft being performed in the christian church. I also learned something new, apperently each continent has its own legion of angels, for she called angels from Africa and also South America. She forgot to call the ones from Europe and Asia though, and what happend to the angels in North America couldnt they handle it on their own? Do people really belief this? and what kind of excuse will Paula come up with since her attemptst failed bigly, I have some listed here for her:
God was too busy
Gods Angels had a big party going on
The will of the people was stronger then God
She didnt prayed hard enough (she never admits to this)
God didnt realy liked Trump after all.
She misunderstood that the sound of victory she heard was actually ment for Joe.
I also refitted an old verse:
humpty trumpty sat in the white house, humpty trumpty had a great rouse, all gods preachers and all gods angels couldnt get trumpty re-elected again.