Uk majority muslim country in 2100 assuming migration stops. What to be done

Hey Atheist Republicans,

I’ve been thinking about this subject a lot recently and would like some input on my current conclusions as well as solutions which don’t contradict our western principles. By the way I agree with the principle: love Muslims hate Islam, it’s mainly the Muslims who practice the Islamic versus of the sword etc who are the problem but of course a total rejection of Islam is preferable.

I’ve been using chat gpt to help me with some math to get the answer to the question: “When will the UK become a majority Muslim country based on fertility rates if nothing changes apart from an end to net migration”. I know a stop to net migration is unlikely under this government but as it’s some thing which is theoretically in the control of democracy I won’t include it.

The most optimistic part of me considers it not impossible that the Reform party gets in and we start to only accept migration from non Muslim countries and at a “net zero” migration level. Though this is improbable.

Any way, here’s the assumptions for the math: No net migration, Muslim fertility rate stays at 2.9, white British fertility rate is at 1.6%, non white non Muslim fertility rate: 1.8%.

The results chat GPT spits out between year years 2023 - 2100 are:

Here are some of my solutions:

Apostate support centers, like rape support centers for women in abusive relationships but for apostates, to help the women or men leave the religion if they choose to do so without facing destitution or violence.

Mandatory women’s rights classes with sections on the legally protected rights to wear what they want without fear of violence, classes about the illegality of female genital mutilation and forced marriage etc.

After leaving the ECHR and writing our own bill of human rights we enforce treason laws with the punishment of deportation. Treason can be agitating for the overthrow of the western legal and democratic systems, planning attacks for religious reasons, committing religiously motivated acts of violence on anyone or advocating doing so, including female genital mutilation. Other countries like Pakistan may accept them if we sell their assets and pool them, then divide them evenly per deportee and pay the receiving country.

Apart from this the continued development of new technologies to increase general education levels and reduce global strife due to lack of abundance will help.

I look forward to hearing your views and suggestions.

Cheers
Mike

Since only 6% of the UK population are Muslims I am extremely dubious about your claim. Also this is a democracy, and people are aloud to hold any religious beliefs they like.

Well I found a 2011 census, and the percentage of immigrants who are Muslims is again very low at just 9%, while 50% identified as Christians?

I then found another link from 2016, it asserts that Christians were the largest group among both the foreign born population (50%) and Great Britain as a whole (54%). The percentage of migrants who hold no religious beliefs in this research was roughly half that of the general population at 18% to 36% respectively.

CITATION

Why? What is it you think is going to happen?

Muslims born in the UK are British by definition, wtf is the word white in there, that’s just racist? Also the birth rate is only one variable, for example not all children will necessarily keep the religious beliefs of their parents. You are making large assumptions, and this is sounding a little like bigotry now.

I suggest you explain how you got 27.36 million Muslims in just 76 years?

“Islam is the second-largest religion in the United Kingdom, with results from the 2021 Census recording just under four million Muslims, or 6.0% of the total population in the United Kingdom.”

CITATION

Where did the 23.36 million Muslims come from? By my calculations that’s an average increase of 295690 every single year for 79 years (from the date those stats were compiled), and this still wouldn’t represent a majority of the population? In 2022 the UK population was 66.97 million, it will obviously be larger in 79 years time, your maths seems shaky, your fear of this religion in the UK unfounded, and your use of terms like problem and solution more than a little insensitive, if not outright worrying, when citing an entire religious demographic as a problem.

It would make more sense, to simply cite the actions of people, where those actions are perceived as pernicious, otherwise it just sounds like bigotry. I’d imagine the vast majority are law abiding citizens, and their beliefs are no more a problem that any other religion. Compare this to the endemic child abuse in the Catholic priesthood for example, and I would still baulk at anyone talking about Catholics as a problem we need a solution to.

The stat about skin colour just seems like outright racism? I am all for protecting people’s rights, and this includes the right for anyone to believe whatever they want, or disbelieve anything they want of course. We already have laws against some of the things you mention, and I am dubious such crimes are more prevalent among Muslims per se, than in the general population, without some hard evidence to support it, this again seems like bigotry.

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Its ok Shelley, these “little Englanders” have been around for a few centuries now. Still bleating and producing crappola stats. Mosley in the 30’s and that excrement stain on the universe Farage.

They have had the shit beat out of them several times over the decades but still pop up, though in decreasing numbers… This unpleasant, genitally challenged wannabe fascist will soon be but a memory on this forum.

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How do you define fertility rates in percent?

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Or by skin colour? It seems the answer is by indulging racist stereotypes, and the fact he hasn’t been back, suggests to me he might have been trolling for a reaction.

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Hello all, sorry for my slow reply I checked the site yesterday to reply but I got the cloudflare page stating the site is down.

Looks like there’s been some misunderstandings which I’m happy to clarify.

It seems the misunderstandings largely come from the concept I included at the start of my original post of “Love Muslims hate Islam”. If I were posting in any other forum I’d have written more to explain this concept, I didn’t here as I assumed that most of you came here from the Atheist Republic youtube channel (?) where Armin has explained this concept many times.

Love Muslims: Most Muslims in the west thankfully are cultural Muslims meaning that they do not advocate some of the core tenets of Islam, eg Sharia law (The national poll I learned about from Mahyar Tousi youtube channel stated 40% do advocate for this in the UK), as well as living in a way to maximise your chances in the after life even at the expense of your life on earth. This concept also recognises that the group which hurts Islam the most are Muslims. Cultural Muslims have created their own religion because they’re good people, as Islam is undeniably a prescriptive religion it cannot be called Islam without including all tenets from the Quran such as Sharia, versus of the word and many of the other terrible concepts.

Hate Islam: As this is an Atheist forum you all can probably site off a bunch of reasons why Islam causes massive harm around the world. Personally I agree with Armins characterisation of Islam as a mind virus.

The problem I’m referring to in the original post is the spread of this mind virus and the potential for it to ultimately be the in the minds of the majority of citizens of the UK within a few decades.

To clarify here’s what I’m not advocating for:

  • An ethno state
  • Mass deportation of Muslims
  • Removing any rights from Muslims
  • Subjugating Muslims
  • Forming a negative opinion of Muslims simply based on the fact that they are Muslim as they are most often cultural Muslims. The negativity I feel towards the very significant number who advocate all tenets of Islam including Sharia law and the versus of the sword etc etc etc come from fear that they may ultimately be successful at adding the UK to a global caliphate mostly through demographic change.

What I am advocating for in my three solutions:
*Helping Muslims who feel trapped in Islam due to their circumstances including retribution from family members if leave Islam (become an apostate).
*Helping Muslims (especially the women) to be certain of their rights protected by UK law.
*Helping Muslims to deradicalise their community by enforcing treason laws to deport those who advocate acting out the versus of the sword in order to get rid of the liberal legal system and install a system of Sharia law which is in direct contradiction to western values.

With all of that said I’ll go through your specific objections which are not answered by the text above.

“Since only 6% of the UK population are Muslims I am extremely dubious about your claim”

I’ll include the math performed by chat gpt4o below:

“people are aloud to hold any religious beliefs they like”
Agreed I’m proud that this is one of the aspects of western culture. What I’m advocating for is helping Muslims in ways to win the war of ideas and to help those who already want to leave Islam.

" Muslims born in the UK are British by definition, wtf is the word white in there, that’s just racist? Also the birth rate is only one variable, for example not all children will necessarily keep the religious beliefs of their parents. You are making large assumptions, and this is sounding a little like bigotry now."

When projecting demographics it’s entirely normal to include the largest ethnic groups in order to determine how the country may change, this is done by the ONS and there is absolutely nothing racist about it. It would be useless to have a single group called “British” because everyone is a British citizen. Citizenship and Ethnicity are different.

Here’s a separate point on Ethnicity: I’m a big fan of global diversity of Ethnicity and celebrating our differences and similarities. I don’t believe in the erasure of any ethnicity around the world, be it a natively Black country in Africa, or the Japanse ethnicity or the Arab ethnicity or the European ethnicity. For this reason countries around the world historically have limited their inward migration to a level which is low enough to ensure that the new migrants can be assimilated into the country (taking into account differential fertility rates) without changing the native ethnicity of the country.

Regarding old man shouts at clouds that’s obviously all just abuse based on his misunderstandings, so I’m not going to respond apart from to say that it’s reasonable that on any forum, any post the sole purpose of which is to hurl abuse without contributing to the debate should not be tolerated. For this reason I’ll be reporting his post to the mods. I won’t be advocating for a ban as he may be reasonable when not misunderstanding someone, unless of course he makes a habit of this?

I’m interested in your response to this message, do you still think I’m racist, bigoted, small minded, have a small pp etc? If so please include your reasoning.

Do you think that Islam is a mind virus?

  • If so do you think it is worth thinking about in terms of solutions to help those who are infected?
  • If so do you have any suggestions?
  • Do you think there’s no risk from Islam and never will be regardless of if it ever becomes a majority in the UK?
  • Even with 40% of the Muslim community advocating Sharia?
  • Did I miss any of your points?

Mike

There are several things about this calculation that should have led you to question both the calculation and the conclusions. First of all, the total fertilitiy rate for the UK is 1.6 (TOTAL, not just “white British”). Source: United Kingdom Demographics 2023 (Population, Age, Sex, Trends) - Worldometer

This means that already at the assumptions made the calculation is wrong. Next, the calculation mixes up fertility rate (1.6 live births per woman in a lifetime) with yearly percentage wise growth per year (red arrows). Further, a fertility rate of 1.6 (below replacement rate) is translated to a percentage wise negative growth of 1-0.016 per year, while a replacement rate above replacement (like fertility rate 2.9) is translated to a yearly growth of 1+0.029 per year. See the parts underlined by light blue. In other words, these “calculations” are pure and utter bullshit that have nothing to do with the question asked and nothing at all to do with reality. And you, sir, are a gullible fool to believe calculations presented to you by ChatGPT. Or you are a troll. I’m unable to decide, due to Poe’s law. If you want to present calculations to an audience where people have advanced degrees in the sciences, at least make sure you actually understand what you are doing.

In short: your presentation is not only not right, it is not even wrong

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Edit: I’ve made several small edits, but I’d also like to point out where ChatGPT is getting it wrong. It interprets a fertility rate of 1.6 (below replacement rate) as “1.6 below 1” (1-0.016), and likewise interprets a fertility rate of 2.9 (above replacent rate) as “2.9 above 1” (1+0.029). The replacement rate is 2.1 for steady state without requiring immigration. And it mixes fertility rates with yearly growth rates. This is all due to LLMs (Large Language Models) not having an actual understanding of what it reads and writes, but is only a tool to place words in order in a statistically correct way, based on the texts on which it has been trained.

I have flagged his post as racist hate speech, I will no longer be engaging with this poster. His earlier comments on skin colour and ethnicity and immigration set of all sorts of red flags for me.

He also failed to honestly address a single objection to his erroneous predictions. I’m done…

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Since this string is generating too much dicey dissension and no forward progress, I’m closing it.

Please DO NOT start a new string that is similar.

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