Is every knowledge a probability?

Do we know anything for certain, anything at all?

Are you dipping your toe into solipsism?

Careful, now…”one’s mind is sure to exist.”

The only reason “one’s mind works is because if the brain :brain:” (which is in your mind) lol

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A skeptic, I try to avoid certitudes. After all, science does not provide certainties.
I think there are absolutes in Maths but I’m not sure.

The only certainty I can think of right now is the eventual death of all living things.

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Careful, now…”one’s mind is sure to exist.”

The only reason “one’s mind works is because if the brain :brain:” (which is in your mind) lol

No no, I’m not dipping into any solipsism. I didn’t even know what that is until you pointed it out.

By the way, in psychology, brain is the physical organ and mind is the abstract concept of the part of us that we call “I” or “me”.

So, brain’s not in the mind. The brain’s in the skull and with all the neurons and neural networks working simultaneously, all the time, is what gives rise to the mind, which is again, an abstract concept of “I”. If the brain shuts down, there is no “me”. So my consciousness is dependent on the proper functioning of my brain

At least this is what I learned from my psychology teachers.

Hmm, how certain are we talking about? I think all facts must remain tentative and open to revision in light of new evidence, otherwise we’re just being closed minded.

This does not mean objective facts like entire well established scientific theories are ever likely to be entirely reversed.

The earth is neither flat nor at the centre of the universe. The likelihood those objective facts will ever be reversed is so unlikely as to be effectively nil, but I cannot rule it out entirely.

I think the likelihood evolution through natural selection will ever be entirely falsified is equally unlikely.

Does this help?

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The earth is neither flat nor at the centre of the universe. The likelihood those objective facts will ever be reversed is so unlikely as to be effectively nil, but I cannot rule it out entirely.

I think the likelihood evolution through natural selection will ever be entirely falsified is equally unlikely.

Yeah, that’s what I was talking about.

It’s interesting. So what you’re saying is that it’s wrong to say that we’re absolutely, 100%, certain about anything? In other words, the farthest we can ever go with, numerically, is 99.99999% likely. We don’t have the luxury of enjoying absolute certainty anywhere? Like, even if we assert that the earth is not flat with 99.99999% (I don’t know how many 9s to put lol) likelihood and that proving this wrong is almost impossible, we still don’t have the luxury of saying that it’s completely impossible to disprove.

Correct.

That’s just another way of describing oneself as closed minded.

No, all scientific ideas must be falsifiable, it’s a requirement. The probability that will happen is another matter. The possibility is there, it’s designed in the method, the likelihood it will happen should be viewed against the amount of evidence that supports it.

In scientific terms it’s a requirement that it is never impossible.

Falsifiability is a key requirement, unfalsifiable ideas are unscientific.

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I hold to just one certainty, that in the entire cosmos (all of everything), there is something.

Everything else is built from probabilities and confidence. For example, I am confident my senses reflect the real world around me because they have consistently delivered messages that align with experience and match up with what other people describe.

In our discovery of this universe and how it works, nothing is 100% certain. For example, just yesterday I got a sniff about a team of scientists who may make a major revision of the big bang theory.

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Wow, that’s thought-provoking. I’ll reflect more on that. It really does make sense that if someone believes that they have 100% knowledge about something, what they’re really saying is that they don’t need to look anymore, since they have everything they could get. Yup, close-minded.

Thank you, your words made me think!

What do you mean, “for certain?” I am as certain as I can be that I will see the sun in the sky tomorrow. I am as certain as I can be that if I drink a bottle of bleach I will die. I do not need to be 100% certain to be “certain.” You are engaging in a “black or white” fallacy. Things are not “black or white.” Things are not “all or nothing.”

We live in a world that has real consequences for us. Pretending that every knowledge is a probability, while technically true, is also lying with statistics. (Do you know what probability is?) Probability is when you compare chances of being wrong with chances of being right. Your probability of pulling the Ace of Spades from a deck of 52 playing cards is 1/52.

To assess a probability you need both a success and a failure rate. The probability of life forming in this universe is 100%. Life has formed and we can prove it. Probability is a math concept and not a knowledge concept, as is “prove.”

Not all knowledge is equal. If you tell me that you bought a hamster yesterday, I accept that on face value as true because I don’t give a shit. People buy hamsters all the time. I will call that knowledge. I have the knowledge that you have a hamster and I will accept it as true until I have evidence to the contrary. Why? Because it is easy and I don’t have the time, energy, care or concern to debunk every lame claim made by every person on the planet. It’s just easier for me to accept the claim as true. I have no idea at all what the “probability would be.” NONE.

Most of what we consider knowledge is not subject to probability at all. Who would bother to take the time?

I don’t think you understand what you are actually asking? I think you are actually trying to ask if we can know anything for certain. What belief can we hold, that can be asserted to be 100% true. I think this is what you are actually trying to ask.

I perceive something, I’ve no objective evidence it’s not real.

I’m also pretty drunk, my regional rugby team won, and Wales just beat England in the 6N to win the triple crown and go top of the table.

Woohoo…:grin:

The fact that we are under the impression we are perceiving indicates that the entire cosmos has something going on inside it.

Congratulations on the Wales win, that is reason to go full Welsh.

I agree, I try to challenge my most basic ideas, it doesn’t mean I’ve turned to the dark side I promise. :grin:

Just testing how objective my rationale is.

I thought we’d get properly tuned this 6N, as we have a new coach trying to create the style he wants, but we’re 3 from 3, and seem to be improving each game.

France in Paris will be a real test of where we are, as they’re on fire…

:sunglasses:

Yea, but beating England carries a special delicious tang.

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